Conoco Phillips (COP) is undervalued and Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, COP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +55%, against +27% for OXY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $279.44; the price of $125.27 is 55% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 88/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $77.34; the price of $56.31 is 27% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 68/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $125.27 | $56.31 |
| Intrinsic value | $279.44 | $77.34 |
| Margin of safety | +55% | +27% |
| Leak Score | 88/100 (8/12) | 68/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $150.5B | $56.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 25.6% | 4.7% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 23.1% |
| Net margin | 14.7% | 14.0% |
| Return on equity | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| P/E | 16.6x | 16.7x |
| Forward P/E | 13.5x | 14.0x |
| P/B | 2.3x | 1.7x |
| Dividend yield | 2.7% | 1.8% |