Conoco Phillips (COP) is undervalued and EOG Resources Inc (EOG) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, COP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +55%, against +42% for EOG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $279.44; the price of $125.27 is 55% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 88/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $241.48; the price of $139.52 is 42% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 89/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | COP | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $125.27 | $139.52 |
| Intrinsic value | $279.44 | $241.48 |
| Margin of safety | +55% | +42% |
| Leak Score | 88/100 (8/12) | 89/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $150.5B | $73.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 25.6% | 17.9% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 35.1% |
| Net margin | 14.7% | 25.8% |
| Return on equity | 14.1% | 22.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| P/E | 16.6x | 10.8x |
| Forward P/E | 13.5x | 9.5x |
| P/B | 2.3x | 2.3x |
| Dividend yield | 2.7% | 3.0% |