Capital One Financial Corp (COF) is slightly overvalued and Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. COF is the closer of the two: -15%, against -23% for MA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 0.84x, the multiple a 8.9% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $174.43; the price of $200.55 is 15% above that value.
Leak Score 55/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $451.02; the price of $555.89 is 23% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | COF | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $200.55 | $555.89 |
| Intrinsic value | $174.43 | $451.02 |
| Margin of safety | -15% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 55/100 (10/12) | 70/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $123.0B | $487.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| Operating margin | 16.6% | 59.2% |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 46.3% |
| Return on equity | 8.9% | 241.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 4.39 |
| P/E | 12.4x | 30.6x |
| Forward P/E | 8.4x | 24.1x |
| P/B | 1.1x | 87.0x |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | 0.6% |