Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) is undervalued and Conoco Phillips (COP) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, COP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +55%, against +40% for CNQ.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $79.80; the price of $47.77 is 40% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $279.44; the price of $125.27 is 55% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 88/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CNQ | COP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $47.77 | $125.27 |
| Intrinsic value | $79.80 | $279.44 |
| Margin of safety | +40% | +55% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 88/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $98.5B | $150.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 17.1% | 25.6% |
| Operating margin | 26.6% | 22.1% |
| Net margin | 26.2% | 14.7% |
| Return on equity | 26.8% | 14.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| P/E | 11.8x | 16.6x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | 13.5x |
| P/B | 3.0x | 2.3x |
| Dividend yield | 3.7% | 2.7% |