Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) is overvalued and Union Pacific Corp (UNP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. UNP is the closer of the two: -31%, against -43% for CNI.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.52; the price of $119.52 is 43% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $209.54; the price of $274.41 is 31% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CNI | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $119.52 | $274.41 |
| Intrinsic value | $83.52 | $209.54 |
| Margin of safety | -43% | -31% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 51/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $72.3B | $163.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.8% | 4.6% |
| Operating margin | 37.5% | 39.9% |
| Net margin | 26.9% | 28.9% |
| Return on equity | 22.2% | 39.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| P/E | 21.2x | 22.2x |
| Forward P/E | 18.6x | 19.4x |
| P/B | 4.7x | 7.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.2% | 2.0% |