Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) is overvalued and CSX Corp (CSX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CNI is the closer of the two: -43%, against -94% for CSX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.52; the price of $119.52 is 43% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.06; the price of $46.59 is 94% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 31/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CNI | CSX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $119.52 | $46.59 |
| Intrinsic value | $83.52 | $24.06 |
| Margin of safety | -43% | -94% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 31/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $72.3B | $86.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.8% | 5.9% |
| Operating margin | 37.5% | 35.3% |
| Net margin | 26.9% | 22.2% |
| Return on equity | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.03 | 1.37 |
| P/E | 21.2x | 26.9x |
| Forward P/E | 18.6x | 20.5x |
| P/B | 4.7x | 6.1x |
| Dividend yield | 2.2% | 1.2% |