Cummins Inc (CMI) is slightly overvalued and Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CMI is the closer of the two: -11%, against -103% for ITW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $475.37; the price of $526.13 is 11% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 46/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $133.46; the price of $270.47 is 103% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMI | ITW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $526.13 | $270.47 |
| Intrinsic value | $475.37 | $133.46 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -103% |
| Leak Score | 46/100 (10/12) | 62/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $72.4B | $77.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 11.4% | 26.5% |
| Net margin | 7.8% | 19.4% |
| Return on equity | 22.0% | 104.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.64 | 3.35 |
| P/E | 26.9x | 24.5x |
| Forward P/E | 15.2x | 21.9x |
| P/B | 5.6x | 26.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 2.4% |