Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and Yum China Holdings Inc (YUMC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, YUMC trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +23%, against -36% for CMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $54.25; the price of $41.58 is 23% below that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | YUMC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $32.63 | $41.58 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $54.25 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | +23% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $14.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 7.8% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | 17.5% |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | 0.43 |
| P/E | 30.1x | 15.3x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 12.4x |
| P/B | 18.8x | 2.7x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.7% |