Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and Yum Brands Inc (YUM) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. YUM is the closer of the two: -8%, against -36% for CMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $129.33; the price of $139.71 is 8% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $32.63 | $139.71 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $129.33 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | -8% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 65/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $38.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 7.8% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 32.4% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 25.4% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | — |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | — |
| P/E | 30.1x | 17.6x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 19.3x |
| P/B | 18.8x | — |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.1% |