Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TXRH is the closer of the two: -20%, against -36% for CMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $138.80; the price of $166.12 is 20% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $32.63 | $166.12 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $138.80 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | -20% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 19.6% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 8.2% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 6.6% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | 27.5% |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | 0.70 |
| P/E | 30.1x | 26.6x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 21.3x |
| P/B | 18.8x | 7.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.8% |