Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and Starbucks Corp (SBUX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CMG is the closer of the two: -36%, against -185% for SBUX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $33.32; the price of $95.11 is 185% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 46/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $32.63 | $95.11 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $33.32 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | -185% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 46/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $108.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 9.6% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | — |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | — |
| P/E | 30.1x | 54.8x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 30.1x |
| P/B | 18.8x | — |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.6% |