Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, QSR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +8%, against -36% for CMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $78.55; the price of $71.91 is 8% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 39/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $32.63 | $71.91 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $78.55 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | +8% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 39/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $32.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 13.7% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 27.2% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 13.1% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | 39.0% |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | 4.07 |
| P/E | 30.1x | 21.3x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 16.2x |
| P/B | 18.8x | 8.4x |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.6% |