Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and McDonald's Corp (MCD) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MCD is the closer of the two: -21%, against -36% for CMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $206.94; the price of $250.35 is 21% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $32.63 | $250.35 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $206.94 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | -21% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 60/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $177.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 7.0% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 45.7% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 31.7% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | — |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | — |
| P/E | 30.1x | 20.3x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 18.0x |
| P/B | 18.8x | — |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.0% |