Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is overvalued and Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, DRI trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +3%, against -36% for CMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.00; the price of $32.63 is 36% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $219.43; the price of $213.54 is 3% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CMG | DRI |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $32.63 | $213.54 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.00 | $219.43 |
| Margin of safety | -36% | +3% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (9/12) | 59/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $41.3B | $24.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.8% | 12.9% |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 12.2% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Return on equity | 49.6% | 53.7% |
| Debt to equity | 2.46 | 3.63 |
| P/E | 30.1x | 20.6x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 17.2x |
| P/B | 18.8x | 11.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.1% |