CME Group Inc (CME) is slightly overvalued and Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CME is the closer of the two: -15%, against -57% for NDAQ.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $232.06; the price of $267.21 is 15% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 61/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $60.32; the price of $94.50 is 57% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 58/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CME | NDAQ |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $267.21 | $94.50 |
| Intrinsic value | $232.06 | $60.32 |
| Margin of safety | -15% | -57% |
| Leak Score | 61/100 (8/12) | 58/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $96.1B | $52.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Operating margin | 65.1% | 30.8% |
| Net margin | 63.1% | 22.6% |
| Return on equity | 15.8% | 16.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.15 | 0.78 |
| P/E | 22.7x | 27.5x |
| Forward P/E | 20.7x | 20.2x |
| P/B | 3.6x | 4.4x |
| Dividend yield | 4.3% | 1.3% |