CIENA Corp (CIEN) is overvalued and Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CIEN is the closer of the two: -707%, against -1899% for LITE.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $45.66; the price of $368.56 is 707% above that value.
Leak Score 49/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $47.31; the price of $945.67 is 1899% above that value.
Leak Score 41/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CIEN | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $368.56 | $945.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.66 | $47.31 |
| Margin of safety | -707% | -1899% |
| Leak Score | 49/100 (10/12) | 41/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $52.3B | $84.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.2% | 11.6% |
| Operating margin | 14.1% | 17.9% |
| Net margin | 10.9% | -230.1% |
| Return on equity | 22.4% | -240.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.07 | 0.36 |
| P/E | 82.2x | — |
| Forward P/E | 31.3x | 27.9x |
| P/B | 17.1x | 18.0x |