CIENA Corp (CIEN) is overvalued and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CIEN is the closer of the two: -707%, against -5467% for HPE.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $45.66; the price of $368.56 is 707% above that value.
Leak Score 49/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Its through-the-cycle earnings (4.2% median margin), capitalised at 10.4% with no growth, values the shares at $1.10; the price of $61.03 is 5467% above that value.
Leak Score 33/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CIEN | HPE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $368.56 | $61.03 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.66 | $1.10 |
| Margin of safety | -707% | -5467% |
| Leak Score | 49/100 (10/12) | 33/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $52.3B | $81.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.2% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 14.1% | 8.0% |
| Net margin | 10.9% | 6.4% |
| Return on equity | 22.4% | 11.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.07 | 0.76 |
| P/E | 82.2x | 31.8x |
| Forward P/E | 31.3x | 13.3x |
| P/B | 17.1x | 3.1x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.9% |