CIENA Corp (CIEN) is overvalued and Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CSCO is the closer of the two: -101%, against -707% for CIEN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $45.66; the price of $368.56 is 707% above that value.
Leak Score 49/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $53.03; the price of $106.44 is 101% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 44/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CIEN | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $368.56 | $106.44 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.66 | $53.03 |
| Margin of safety | -707% | -101% |
| Leak Score | 49/100 (10/12) | 44/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $52.3B | $419.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.2% | 4.9% |
| Operating margin | 14.1% | 25.2% |
| Net margin | 10.9% | 20.9% |
| Return on equity | 22.4% | 27.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.07 | 0.62 |
| P/E | 82.2x | 32.0x |
| Forward P/E | 31.3x | 19.2x |
| P/B | 17.1x | 8.3x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.6% |