C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW) is overvalued and United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UPS trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +6%, against -151% for CHRW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $59.55; the price of $149.56 is 151% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $101.77; the price of $95.87 is 6% below that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 39/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CHRW | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $149.56 | $95.87 |
| Intrinsic value | $59.55 | $101.77 |
| Margin of safety | -151% | +6% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 39/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $17.5B | $81.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Operating margin | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| Net margin | 3.7% | 5.1% |
| Return on equity | 37.1% | 29.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.21 | 1.90 |
| P/E | 28.5x | 17.9x |
| Forward P/E | 19.9x | 11.9x |
| P/B | 10.8x | 5.4x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 6.8% |