Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is undervalued and Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CHDN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +59%, against +28% for SGHC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $191.80; the price of $79.49 is 59% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $17.12; the price of $12.35 is 28% below that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CHDN | SGHC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $79.49 | $12.35 |
| Intrinsic value | $191.80 | $17.12 |
| Margin of safety | +59% | +28% |
| Leak Score | 70/100 (3/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $5.5B | $6.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 22.6% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 25.8% | 21.3% |
| Net margin | 13.7% | 15.2% |
| Return on equity | 34.3% | 49.4% |
| Debt to equity | 3.57 | 0.13 |
| P/E | 13.6x | 17.0x |
| Forward P/E | 10.7x | 12.6x |
| P/B | 4.2x | 7.5x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 1.6% |