Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is undervalued and Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLUT) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CHDN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +59%, against -488% for FLUT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $191.80; the price of $79.49 is 59% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% values the shares at $15.06; the price of $88.62 is 488% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | CHDN | FLUT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $79.49 | $88.62 |
| Intrinsic value | $191.80 | $15.06 |
| Margin of safety | +59% | -488% |
| Leak Score | 70/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $5.5B | $15.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 22.6% | 23.7% |
| Operating margin | 25.8% | 2.8% |
| Net margin | 13.7% | -4.4% |
| Return on equity | 34.3% | -8.0% |
| Debt to equity | 3.57 | 1.44 |
| P/E | 13.6x | — |
| Forward P/E | 10.7x | 12.3x |
| P/B | 4.2x | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | — |