Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD) is overvalued and Estee Lauder Cos. Inc (EL) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CHD is the closer of the two: -76%, against -404% for EL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $54.66; the price of $96.12 is 76% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 68/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $19.92; the price of $100.29 is 404% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 35/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CHD | EL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $96.12 | $100.29 |
| Intrinsic value | $54.66 | $19.92 |
| Margin of safety | -76% | -404% |
| Leak Score | 68/100 (9/12) | 35/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $22.8B | $36.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.8% | -1.5% |
| Operating margin | 17.5% | 11.2% |
| Net margin | 12.0% | 1.2% |
| Return on equity | 17.0% | 4.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.56 | 2.43 |
| P/E | 30.9x | 201.6x |
| Forward P/E | 23.8x | 25.5x |
| P/B | 5.2x | 9.5x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 1.5% |