CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is undervalued and Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CF trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +68%, against -82% for SMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $373.46; the price of $120.59 is 68% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 92/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.88; the price of $52.68 is 82% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | CF | SMG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $120.59 | $52.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $373.46 | $28.88 |
| Margin of safety | +68% | -82% |
| Leak Score | 92/100 (10/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $18.2B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.4% | -3.8% |
| Operating margin | 41.5% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | 27.1% | 2.2% |
| Return on equity | 39.2% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | — |
| P/E | 8.9x | 46.1x |
| Forward P/E | 11.1x | 10.9x |
| P/B | 3.2x | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.8% | 5.1% |