CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is undervalued and Nutrien Ltd (NTR) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CF trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +68%, against +10% for NTR.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $373.46; the price of $120.59 is 68% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 92/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.76; the price of $75.43 is 10% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CF | NTR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $120.59 | $75.43 |
| Intrinsic value | $373.46 | $83.76 |
| Margin of safety | +68% | +10% |
| Leak Score | 92/100 (10/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $18.2B | $36.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.4% | 5.2% |
| Operating margin | 41.5% | 13.8% |
| Net margin | 27.1% | 8.4% |
| Return on equity | 39.2% | 9.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| P/E | 8.9x | 15.3x |
| Forward P/E | 11.1x | 15.2x |
| P/B | 3.2x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 1.8% | 2.9% |