CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is undervalued and ICL Group Ltd (ICL) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CF trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +68%, against -0% for ICL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $373.46; the price of $120.59 is 68% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 92/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $5.38; the price of $5.40 sits right on that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | CF | ICL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $120.59 | $5.40 |
| Intrinsic value | $373.46 | $5.38 |
| Margin of safety | +68% | -0% |
| Leak Score | 92/100 (10/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $18.2B | $7.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.4% | 7.2% |
| Operating margin | 41.5% | 10.6% |
| Net margin | 27.1% | 4.0% |
| Return on equity | 39.2% | 5.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| P/E | 8.9x | 22.9x |
| Forward P/E | 11.1x | 12.3x |
| P/B | 3.2x | 1.1x |
| Dividend yield | 1.8% | 3.7% |