CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is undervalued and FMC Corp (FMC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CF trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +68%, against +59% for FMC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $373.46; the price of $120.59 is 68% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 92/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Its through-the-cycle earnings (15.3% median margin), capitalised at 6.2% with no growth, values the shares at $25.73; the price of $10.57 is 59% below that value.
Leak Score 45/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CF | FMC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $120.59 | $10.57 |
| Intrinsic value | $373.46 | $25.73 |
| Margin of safety | +68% | +59% |
| Leak Score | 92/100 (10/12) | 45/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $18.2B | $1.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.4% | -5.7% |
| Operating margin | 41.5% | -1.9% |
| Net margin | 27.1% | -84.9% |
| Return on equity | 39.2% | -89.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | 2.69 |
| P/E | 8.9x | — |
| Forward P/E | 11.1x | 6.4x |
| P/B | 3.2x | 0.8x |
| Dividend yield | 1.8% | 3.4% |