CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is undervalued and Corteva Inc (CTVA) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CF trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +68%, against -31% for CTVA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $373.46; the price of $120.59 is 68% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 92/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $61.32; the price of $80.34 is 31% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CF | CTVA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $120.59 | $80.34 |
| Intrinsic value | $373.46 | $61.32 |
| Margin of safety | +68% | -31% |
| Leak Score | 92/100 (10/12) | 51/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $18.2B | $53.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.4% | 4.1% |
| Operating margin | 41.5% | 16.7% |
| Net margin | 27.1% | 5.7% |
| Return on equity | 39.2% | 4.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| P/E | 8.9x | 53.1x |
| Forward P/E | 11.1x | 19.4x |
| P/B | 3.2x | 2.1x |
| Dividend yield | 1.8% | 0.9% |