Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) is overvalued and Vistra Corp (VST) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. VST is the closer of the two: -34%, against -56% for CEG.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $169.05; the price of $263.19 is 56% above that value.
Leak Score 30/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $111.54; the price of $149.70 is 34% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $263.19 | $149.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $169.05 | $111.54 |
| Margin of safety | -56% | -34% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (10/12) | 45/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $93.3B | $50.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.8% | 8.9% |
| Operating margin | 14.9% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 11.3% | 11.5% |
| Return on equity | 15.3% | 43.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.77 | 3.63 |
| P/E | 25.6x | 25.3x |
| Forward P/E | 19.8x | 14.8x |
| P/B | 2.9x | 16.7x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 0.7% |