Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) is overvalued and NRG Energy Inc (NRG) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NRG is the closer of the two: -16%, against -56% for CEG.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $169.05; the price of $263.19 is 56% above that value.
Leak Score 30/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $85.60; the price of $99.38 is 16% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 23/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | CEG | NRG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $263.19 | $99.38 |
| Intrinsic value | $169.05 | $85.60 |
| Margin of safety | -56% | -16% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (10/12) | 23/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $93.3B | $20.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.8% | 27.9% |
| Operating margin | 14.9% | 5.5% |
| Net margin | 11.3% | 2.4% |
| Return on equity | 15.3% | 23.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.77 | 4.83 |
| P/E | 25.6x | 26.3x |
| Forward P/E | 19.8x | 9.2x |
| P/B | 2.9x | 5.0x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 1.9% |