Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) is overvalued and Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HNRG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +50%, against -56% for CEG.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $169.05; the price of $263.19 is 56% above that value.
Leak Score 30/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $23.48; the price of $11.66 is 50% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CEG | HNRG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $263.19 | $11.66 |
| Intrinsic value | $169.05 | $23.48 |
| Margin of safety | -56% | +50% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (10/12) | 74/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $93.3B | $550M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.8% | 13.7% |
| Operating margin | 14.9% | 1.7% |
| Net margin | 11.3% | -0.2% |
| Return on equity | 15.3% | -0.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.77 | 0.25 |
| P/E | 25.6x | 563.3x |
| Forward P/E | 19.8x | 49.6x |
| P/B | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | — |