Century Communities Inc (CCS) is overvalued and Forestar Group Inc (FOR) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, FOR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +52%, against -48% for CCS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $43.07; the price of $63.87 is 48% above that value.
Leak Score 53/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $57.21; the price of $27.21 is 52% below that value.
Leak Score 67/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CCS | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $63.87 | $27.21 |
| Intrinsic value | $43.07 | $57.21 |
| Margin of safety | -48% | +52% |
| Leak Score | 53/100 (9/12) | 67/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $1.8B | $1.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.1% | 12.3% |
| Operating margin | 3.2% | 14.7% |
| Net margin | 3.5% | 9.9% |
| Return on equity | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.66 | 0.44 |
| P/E | 14.0x | 8.2x |
| Forward P/E | 11.6x | 9.5x |
| P/B | 0.7x | 0.8x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | — |