Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) is undervalued and Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CCK trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +33%, against -23% for PKG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $163.13; the price of $109.64 is 33% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $194.36; the price of $238.23 is 23% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CCK | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $109.64 | $238.23 |
| Intrinsic value | $163.13 | $194.36 |
| Margin of safety | +33% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 70/100 (3/12) | 38/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $11.9B | $21.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.7% | 6.2% |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | 5.9% | 7.2% |
| Return on equity | 27.2% | 14.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.19 | 0.94 |
| P/E | 15.8x | 31.0x |
| Forward P/E | 12.1x | 17.6x |
| P/B | 4.3x | 4.5x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 2.2% |