Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is overvalued and Terex Corp (TEX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TEX is the closer of the two: -48%, against -138% for CAT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $339.81; the price of $808.01 is 138% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $39.69; the price of $58.79 is 48% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CAT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $808.01 | $58.79 |
| Intrinsic value | $339.81 | $39.69 |
| Margin of safety | -138% | -48% |
| Leak Score | 65/100 (10/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $371.4B | $6.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 10.1% | 12.0% |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 7.0% |
| Net margin | 14.5% | 2.2% |
| Return on equity | 57.0% | 4.2% |
| Debt to equity | 2.33 | 0.55 |
| P/E | 34.8x | 30.5x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 9.8x |
| P/B | 19.1x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 1.1% |