Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is overvalued and Paccar Inc (PCAR) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PCAR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +6%, against -138% for CAT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $339.81; the price of $808.01 is 138% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $121.43; the price of $113.90 is 6% below that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CAT | PCAR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $808.01 | $113.90 |
| Intrinsic value | $339.81 | $121.43 |
| Margin of safety | -138% | +6% |
| Leak Score | 65/100 (10/12) | 56/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $371.4B | $60.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 10.1% | 8.7% |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 10.4% |
| Net margin | 14.5% | 9.0% |
| Return on equity | 57.0% | 12.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.33 | 0.72 |
| P/E | 34.8x | 24.0x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 19.1x | 3.0x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 2.9% |