Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is overvalued and Deere & Co (DE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CAT is the closer of the two: -138%, against -202% for DE.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $339.81; the price of $808.01 is 138% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $232.98; the price of $703.12 is 202% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $808.01 | $703.12 |
| Intrinsic value | $339.81 | $232.98 |
| Margin of safety | -138% | -202% |
| Leak Score | 65/100 (10/12) | 43/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $371.4B | $189.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 10.1% | 5.1% |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 20.0% |
| Net margin | 14.5% | 10.2% |
| Return on equity | 57.0% | 18.3% |
| Debt to equity | 2.33 | 2.29 |
| P/E | 34.8x | 39.1x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 31.3x |
| P/B | 19.1x | 6.8x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 0.9% |