Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is overvalued and CNH Industrial NV (CNH) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CAT is the closer of the two: -138%, against -308% for CNH.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $339.81; the price of $808.01 is 138% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $3.35; the price of $13.67 is 308% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CAT | CNH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $808.01 | $13.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $339.81 | $3.35 |
| Margin of safety | -138% | -308% |
| Leak Score | 65/100 (10/12) | 0/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $371.4B | $16.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 10.1% | -7.0% |
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 13.3% |
| Net margin | 14.5% | 1.7% |
| Return on equity | 57.0% | 4.0% |
| Debt to equity | 2.33 | 3.39 |
| P/E | 34.8x | 54.8x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 20.7x |
| P/B | 19.1x | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 1.1% |