Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) is overvalued and Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) is fairly valued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ULTA is the closer of the two: -2%, against -35% for CASY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $432.79; the price of $584.83 is 35% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 76/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $541.68; the price of $553.86 is 2% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 67/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CASY | ULTA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $584.83 | $553.86 |
| Intrinsic value | $432.79 | $541.68 |
| Margin of safety | -35% | -2% |
| Leak Score | 76/100 (9/12) | 67/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $21.6B | $23.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 18.1% | 15.0% |
| Operating margin | 5.9% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | 4.1% | 9.3% |
| Return on equity | 20.0% | 46.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| P/E | 28.2x | 20.2x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 17.2x |
| P/B | 5.3x | 9.0x |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | — |