Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) is overvalued and Five Below Inc (FIVE) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, FIVE trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +11%, against -35% for CASY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $432.79; the price of $584.83 is 35% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 76/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $260.16; the price of $232.28 is 11% below that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 81/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CASY | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $584.83 | $232.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $432.79 | $260.16 |
| Margin of safety | -35% | +11% |
| Leak Score | 76/100 (9/12) | 81/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $21.6B | $12.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| Operating margin | 5.9% | 14.8% |
| Net margin | 4.1% | 11.7% |
| Return on equity | 20.0% | 28.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| P/E | 28.2x | 20.8x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 21.0x |
| P/B | 5.3x | 5.2x |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | — |