Carrier Global Corp (CARR) is overvalued and Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WMS is the closer of the two: -30%, against -34% for CARR.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $41.24; the price of $55.21 is 34% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 11 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $98.51; the price of $127.78 is 30% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | CARR | WMS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $55.21 | $127.78 |
| Intrinsic value | $41.24 | $98.51 |
| Margin of safety | -34% | -30% |
| Leak Score | 40/100 (11/12) | 63/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $45.5B | $9.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 9.0% |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 21.5% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | 14.0% |
| Return on equity | 8.4% | 25.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| P/E | 38.9x | 22.1x |
| Forward P/E | 16.7x | 17.3x |
| P/B | 3.5x | 5.1x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 0.6% |