Carrier Global Corp (CARR) is overvalued and Owens Corning (OC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, OC trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +37%, against -77% for CARR.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $31.24; the price of $55.26 is 77% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $200.21; the price of $126.66 is 37% below that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | CARR | OC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $55.26 | $126.66 |
| Intrinsic value | $31.24 | $200.21 |
| Margin of safety | -77% | +37% |
| Leak Score | 45/100 (9/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $45.6B | $10.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 7.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 14.9% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | -6.8% |
| Return on equity | 8.4% | -9.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 1.52 |
| P/E | 38.9x | — |
| Forward P/E | 16.7x | 10.6x |
| P/B | 3.5x | 2.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 2.4% |