Carrier Global Corp (CARR) is overvalued and Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CARR is the closer of the two: -77%, against -153% for JCI.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $31.24; the price of $55.26 is 77% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $57.92; the price of $146.44 is 153% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $55.26 | $146.44 |
| Intrinsic value | $31.24 | $57.92 |
| Margin of safety | -77% | -153% |
| Leak Score | 45/100 (9/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $45.6B | $88.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 14.4% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | 14.3% |
| Return on equity | 8.4% | 14.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| P/E | 38.9x | 25.5x |
| Forward P/E | 16.7x | 24.1x |
| P/B | 3.5x | 6.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 1.1% |