Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD) is undervalued and Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BYD trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +73%, against -30% for MTN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $270.05; the price of $72.08 is 73% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $107.16; the price of $138.98 is 30% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | BYD | MTN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $72.08 | $138.98 |
| Intrinsic value | $270.05 | $107.16 |
| Margin of safety | +73% | -30% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $5.2B | $5.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.4% | 8.6% |
| Operating margin | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| Net margin | 44.3% | 5.4% |
| Return on equity | 93.3% | 21.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.30 | 5.90 |
| P/E | 3.2x | 31.6x |
| Forward P/E | 9.3x | 22.7x |
| P/B | 2.1x | 9.0x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 6.4% |