Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) is undervalued and Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BXMT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +74%, against +51% for STWD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 5.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $50.71; the price of $13.14 is 74% below that value, and 88% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $30.72; the price of $15.10 is 51% below that value, and 86% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | BXMT | STWD |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $13.14 | $15.10 |
| Intrinsic value | $50.71 | $30.72 |
| Margin of safety | +74% | +51% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $2.2B | $5.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.4% | 10.6% |
| Operating margin | 61.1% | 73.3% |
| Net margin | 1.0% | 10.8% |
| Return on equity | 0.5% | 3.4% |
| Debt to equity | 4.85 | 3.65 |
| P/E | 152.3x | 25.4x |
| Forward P/E | 9.2x | 8.0x |
| P/B | 0.7x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 13.9% | 12.7% |