Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) is undervalued and Ellington Financial Inc (EFC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BXMT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +74%, against +63% for EFC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 5.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $50.71; the price of $13.14 is 74% below that value, and 88% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% values the shares at $34.75; the price of $12.70 is 63% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 66/100 on 7 of 12 signals
| Metric | BXMT | EFC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $13.14 | $12.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $50.71 | $34.75 |
| Margin of safety | +74% | +63% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 66/100 (7/12) |
| Market cap | $2.2B | $1.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.4% | 32.4% |
| Operating margin | 61.1% | 81.2% |
| Net margin | 1.0% | 31.1% |
| Return on equity | 0.5% | 12.3% |
| Debt to equity | 4.85 | 9.40 |
| P/E | 152.3x | 7.7x |
| Forward P/E | 9.2x | 6.4x |
| P/B | 0.7x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 13.9% | 12.3% |