Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) is overvalued and TJX Companies Inc (TJX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. BURL is the closer of the two: -40%, against -56% for TJX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $183.28; the price of $256.85 is 40% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.94; the price of $130.79 is 56% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $256.85 | $130.79 |
| Intrinsic value | $183.28 | $83.94 |
| Margin of safety | -40% | -56% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 62/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $16.1B | $143.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.9% | 13.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 12.4% |
| Net margin | 5.8% | 9.7% |
| Return on equity | 41.4% | 62.2% |
| Debt to equity | 2.95 | 1.34 |
| P/E | 23.0x | 24.2x |
| Forward P/E | 18.8x | 22.6x |
| P/B | 8.1x | 13.5x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.4% |