Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) is overvalued and Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, LULU trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +68%, against -40% for BURL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $183.28; the price of $256.85 is 40% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $323.61; the price of $103.73 is 68% below that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BURL | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $256.85 | $103.73 |
| Intrinsic value | $183.28 | $323.61 |
| Margin of safety | -40% | +68% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $16.1B | $12.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.9% | 20.3% |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 18.0% |
| Net margin | 5.8% | 12.8% |
| Return on equity | 41.4% | 30.9% |
| Debt to equity | 2.95 | 0.45 |
| P/E | 23.0x | 8.5x |
| Forward P/E | 18.8x | 12.3x |
| P/B | 8.1x | 2.4x |