Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) is undervalued and Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CHDN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +59%, against +33% for BRSL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $15.50; the price of $10.42 is 33% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $191.80; the price of $79.49 is 59% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BRSL | CHDN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $10.42 | $79.49 |
| Intrinsic value | $15.50 | $191.80 |
| Margin of safety | +33% | +59% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 70/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $1.9B | $5.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -4.3% | 22.6% |
| Operating margin | 24.6% | 25.8% |
| Net margin | 6.9% | 13.7% |
| Return on equity | 15.7% | 34.3% |
| Debt to equity | 5.23 | 3.57 |
| P/E | 11.6x | 13.6x |
| Forward P/E | 13.7x | 10.7x |
| P/B | 2.3x | 4.2x |
| Dividend yield | 8.8% | 0.6% |