BP plc ADR (BP) is undervalued and ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +54%, against -24% for XOM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $94.47; the price of $43.10 is 54% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $128.10; the price of $158.71 is 24% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 68/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | BP | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $43.10 | $158.71 |
| Intrinsic value | $94.47 | $128.10 |
| Margin of safety | +54% | -24% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 68/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $111.0B | $652.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.4% | 12.7% |
| Operating margin | 11.1% | 11.3% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | 9.0% |
| Return on equity | 9.3% | 12.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.24 | 0.16 |
| P/E | 20.8x | 20.4x |
| Forward P/E | 9.7x | 14.7x |
| P/B | 1.9x | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield | 4.7% | 2.6% |