BP plc ADR (BP) is undervalued and Shell Plc ADR (SHEL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +54%, against +47% for SHEL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $94.47; the price of $43.10 is 54% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $178.19; the price of $93.93 is 47% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BP | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $43.10 | $93.93 |
| Intrinsic value | $94.47 | $178.19 |
| Margin of safety | +54% | +47% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $111.0B | $268.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.4% | 8.5% |
| Operating margin | 11.1% | 13.7% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | 8.8% |
| Return on equity | 9.3% | 14.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.24 | 0.40 |
| P/E | 20.8x | 10.4x |
| Forward P/E | 9.7x | 9.9x |
| P/B | 1.9x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 4.7% | 3.3% |