BP plc ADR (BP) is undervalued and Chevron Corp (CVX) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +54%, against -22% for CVX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $94.47; the price of $43.10 is 54% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $166.49; the price of $202.41 is 22% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 53/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | BP | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $43.10 | $202.41 |
| Intrinsic value | $94.47 | $166.49 |
| Margin of safety | +54% | -22% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 53/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $111.0B | $399.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.4% | 14.3% |
| Operating margin | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | 9.7% |
| Return on equity | 9.3% | 12.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.24 | 0.20 |
| P/E | 20.8x | 19.4x |
| Forward P/E | 9.7x | 15.0x |
| P/B | 1.9x | 2.1x |
| Dividend yield | 4.7% | 3.5% |